2026 Macro Outlook: Why Luxury Real Estate Remains a Safe Haven, According to UBS and the IMF

"As we enter 2026, investors are asking whether the powerful combination of the AI boom, fiscal spending and monetary easing will provide enough of a lift to the global economy", notes Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management. The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 3.1% for 2026, broadly in line with 2025's 3.2%: a stabilization phase after years of turbulence, not a marked acceleration or slowdown.

The three areas that matter for a prime real estate investor. In the United States, UBS forecasts roughly 2% GDP growth in 2026, with a possible slowdown in the early months of the year due to tariff pressures and inflation rising to 3% in the second quarter. In the Eurozone, growth will stay just above 1%, with household sentiment still cautious but supported by German infrastructure investment. In Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan), growth of around 5% is expected, with China at 4.5% on the back of innovation and technological modernization under its new five-year plan.

Why this scenario strengthens, rather than weakens, prime real estate. In a context of "slowing globalization, shifting geopolitical balances, multipolar economies and continents on diverging trajectories," as the report describes it, the International Monetary Fund still expects an unprecedented rise in the number of UHNWIs worldwide, driven by entrepreneurial growth, technology and the globalization of talent. In this scenario, prime real estate "remains more than ever a stable, long-term safe haven — tangible, transparent and international": it isn't macroeconomic growth itself that drives ultra-prime demand, but the uncertainty over how and where that growth will be distributed.