What Vintage Watches and Classic Cars Say About the Health of the Luxury Market

The prices of the Rolex Daytona and Patek Philippe Nautilus tell the story of a market driven by rarity, not social-media speculation. What it means for luxury overall.

"The market experienced steady growth, driven by the rarity and prestige of these models, before social-media-fueled speculation pushed prices up" — that's how Geoffroy Ader, a watch expert (SFEP, UFE), describes in my HNWI Trends 2026 the trajectory of three icon watches: the Rolex Daytona ref. 6263 "Paul Newman" (from around €25,000 in 2015 to around €125,000 in 2025), the Patek Philippe Nautilus ref. 3700/1A (from €25,000 to €100,000) and the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak ref. 5402ST (from €25,000 to €85,000).

Why collectibles are an indicator, not just an asset. The classic-car market tells a more nuanced story: iconic models like the Ferrari 250 GTO or Aston Martin DB5 remain off the scale, but others — the Jaguar E-Type Roadster, Mercedes SL Pagoda, Porsche 356 — are losing value because longtime enthusiasts are now 60-80 years old and have already fulfilled their dream purchase. It's a demographic pattern more than a financial one.

The connection with luxury real estate. For an ultra-prime client, watches, cars and prime properties share the same purchasing logic: "purchases fall into impulsive and considered, viewed through a medium-to-long-term lens," the report notes. A buyer investing in a Patek Philippe Nautilus for its prestige applies the same criterion when evaluating a historic villa on Lake Como or in Portofino: they look for verifiable authenticity, not just a rising price.

Key takeaways

collectible watches have quadrupled or quintupled in value between 2015 and 2025, driven by rarity more than speculation; classic cars follow a demographic cycle; the buying logic is the same one that drives ultra-prime real estate purchases.

Frequently asked questions

Why have collectible watches gained so much value over the past decade?

Growth is driven by the rarity and prestige of historic models, a phenomenon distinct from the more recent speculation fueled by social media.

Are classic cars still a good investment in 2026?

It depends on the model: extremely rare cars remain off the scale, while more common models are declining.

What do buying a rare watch and a luxury villa have in common?

The same logic: verifiable authenticity and a medium-to-long-term horizon.

Sources

HNWI Trends 2026, Denis Andrian — section 14; Geoffroy Ader (SFEP, UFE); CarJager.

Denis Andrian

Real estate brokerage and advisory. Prime residential and hospitality.